About Last Night — Democrats On Course For Big Win In 2018
The contest for the U.S. House seat in #OH12 is still too close to call and is far from over. Although the Democratic candidate narrowly trails, there are approximately 8,400 provisional and absentee ballots that haven’t been counted yet. But for the Green party candidate siphoning away progressive votes, the Democratic candidate would’ve already won the election.
There is no reason why this race should’ve been close. The GOP has held the seat since 1981 and in 2016, the GOP incumbent won by an overwhelming 68% to 32% margin. Once again, the Democrats have significantly over performed.
The GOP shouldn’t get any comfort if they should pull this one out. The GOP candidate out spent the Democratic candidate by a $5 million to $1 million margin. The GOP won’t be able to do that in every district in November.
There are 72 GOP held House districts with a partisan lean more that’s more Democratic than #OH12. That indicates that an extraordinary number of both House (and Senate) seats will be in play this fall. Usually, only 30 to 40 House seats are competitive in an average election cycle.
In red Missouri, a corporate sponsored right to work (for less) law passed by their legislature was soundly rejected in a referendum by a 67% to 33% margin. This is a clear sign that Democrats running on a populist message can break through in red states and districts.
The bottom line is that no GOP incumbent is safe this fall. Let’s get to work! On to victory in November!