Bill Clinton’s Triumph: The 1995–96 GOP Government Shutdowns
The 1994 midterm elections were a disaster for President Bill Clinton and the Democrats. The voters were still in a sour mood after the recession of 1990–92. They took it out on the Democrats and rewarded the Republicans with a historic landslide. The Democrats lost 10 Senate seats and 54 House seats giving the Republicans with a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate and 230 to 204 in the House.
The pundit class prematurely wrote Clinton’s political obituary. ABC White House Correspondent Sam Donaldson reflected that sentiment when he said: “It’s over, I think, for President Clinton, no matter how hard he tries.” Clinton’s approval rating was at an anemic 40 percent in December 1994 in the influential Gallup poll.
Newt Gingrich and the Republicans had run on the so-called “Contract With America,” which was a series of poll tested bromides including tax cuts, welfare reform, a balanced budget, term limits for Congress and a missile defense system. He was of the mistaken belief that the country had turned to the right since these relatively non-controversial positions had polled at 60 percent approval.
The Republicans over read their mandate and went well beyond the promises they made in 1994. In their hubris, the Republicans believed that they had public support for their extreme brand of conservatism. The Republican budget contained $270 billion in Medicare cuts and a $270 billion tax cut that largely benefited the wealthy.
Clinton had counted on Gingrich to overreach and responded with a campaign aimed at defending Medicare, Medicaid, environmental protection and education funding. The Democratic National Committee ran a nationwide television blitz defending Clinton’s priorities. These ads reached 125 million people three times a week and flew under the radar screen since they were not aired in New York and Washington.
Despite that media blitz, Gingrich and the Republicans expected Clinton to cave and were surprised when he vetoed their budget. Things came to a head at an Oval Office meeting on the evening of November 13, 1995, just hours before government funding ended. A delegation of Congressional Republicans arrived at the White House in an attempt to hammer out an agreement.
Senator Majority Bob Dole and House Speaker Newt Gingrich opened the meeting with conciliatory remarks aimed at ending the impasse. Things deteriorated when House Majority Leader Dick Armey accused Clinton of scare tactics over his party’s proposed Medicare cuts. Armey alleged that Clinton had frightened senior citizens all over the country and claimed that his own mother-in-law was afraid and that “we could hardly get her into a nursing home, you guys have scared her so much.”
Clinton was usually genial in these kind of meetings but he fired back at Armey’s allegations. The President cited Republican predictions that his 1993 budget would cause a recession. “Not true,” he said. Clinton was also still angry that the Republicans had falsely claimed his health care plan was socialism. “So don’t look for any pity from me,” Clinton snapped.
The President was just getting started. “If you want to pass your budget, you’re going to have to to put somebody else in this chair,” he said. When he said this, he looked directly at Dole. He went on: “I don’t care what happens. I don’t care if I go to five percent in the polls. I’m not going to sign your budget. It is wrong. It is wrong for the country.”
The Congressional Republicans left the Oval Office at midnight on November 14 and the first government shutdown began. After the meeting, Clinton’s team was elated and praised his resolve. Vice President Al Gore said: “When you said you don’t care if your popularity goes down to five percent, I think it would it would sound a little better if you said I don’t care if my popularity goes down to zero.” Clinton put his arm around Gore and joked: “No, that’s not right, Al, If I go down to four percent I’m caving.” The room erupted in laughter.
Soon after the shutdown began, the polls indicated that voters were blaming Gingrich and the Republicans by a wide margin. Clinton had correctly anticipated that voters might disdain government in the abstract but they do like it in the specific ways that it helps them.
Gingrich compounded the Republicans’ problems when he complained to reporters that he was required to exit the rear door of Air Force One after returning with Clinton and his retinue from Israel for the funeral of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. The New York Daily News responded to Gingrich’s temper tantrum with a headline that read “Cry Baby!” and had a cartoon of Gingrich in diapers and holding a baby bottle.
The Republicans shutdown the government two times. The first was one was between November 14 to 19, and the second one was from December 16 to January 6, 1996. The voters blamed the Republicans because for decades the GOP had bashed the government. By early January, voters by a 2–1 margin held the Republicans responsible for the shutdown. The shutdown had devastating effects on Dole and Gingrich’s approval ratings and they threw in the towel.
“Let’s face it,” White House Aide George Stephanopoulos said, “Gingrich saved our butt.” His budget allowed the Democrats to portray him and his fellow House Republicans as extremists. The White House derisively described the House Republicans as “the Shiites.”
Clinton had triumphed and resurrected his presidency. He emerged from the two Republican shutdowns as a more commanding and self confident president. The change was reflected in the polls. His job approvals rebounded and he took the lead over Dole for the first time in the polls.
Clinton went on to an easy re-election victory over Dole in 1996. He won the popular vote by a 49 percent to 41 percent margin and carried 379 electoral votes compared to 159 for Dole.
Sources consulted:
Harris, John F. The Survivor: Bill Clinton in the White House. New York: Random House 2005.
Nelson, Michael. Clinton’s Elections: 1992, 1996 and the Birth of a New Era of Governance. Lawrence, Kansas: University Press of Kansas 2020.
Thomas, Evan. Back From the Dead: How Clinton Survived the Republican Revolution. New York: The Atlantic Monthly Press 1997.