Don’t Believe The Conventional Wisdom — Bacon Is Vulnerable
Since Kara Eastman won her upset victory over Brad Ashford on May 15, the conventional wisdom has been telling us that she is unlikely to take out first term incumbent Don Bacon in November. As I’ve said before, most of the conventional wisdom in D.C. comes from the “liberal” mainstream press — which has been bullied into submission from years of browbeating by the GOP. In other words, the conventional wisdom actually comes from the GOP.
A source of optimism is a brand new poll released by the Eastman campaign that indicates the race is too close to call. Sure it is early but this is a good sign. I doubt the Republican Party’s overall political situation will improve between now and November 6 due to the volatility of Donald Trump.
It should be a no brainer that Bacon is vulnerable. In 2016, Bacon only defeated Ashford by 3,500 votes and one percentage point in a cycle that turned out to be a poor one for Democrats. The Democrats were plagued by infighting, apathy, James Comey and the Russians. Quite frankly, those factors made 2016 a rather fluky result.
Since his narrow victory, Bacon has done nothing to reach out to those who voted against him. Since he was sworn in, Bacon has voted with Trump 98% of the time. Moreover, Bacon said “hell yes” to voting for Trump Care — a bill that had a 17% approval rating nationally and would have taken away insurance from 23 million people.
Bacon’s gaffe was just as bad as when Lee Terry said “Dang straight” when asked if he was going to keep his paycheck during the GOP’s 2013 government shutdown. Terry told the voters he needed the money because he had a “nice house and two kids in college.” That blunder cost Terry his House seat.
Another factor that indicates that Bacon is on thin ice is that the Democrats have been consistently over performing in special elections since early 2017 by an average of 9 percentage points. In some cases, the over performance has been off the charts. Doug Jones was elected to the U.S. Senate in Alabama and Conor Lamb won a U.S. House seat in a district that Trump carried by 20 points.
At the same time, Eastman has been running an excellent campaign. She and her volunteers have made tens of thousands of voter contacts. In addition, Eastman has recently garnered important endorsements from four prominent women’s groups — including Emily’s List. This means that Eastman will be able to raise enough money to run a competitive race.
What I’m telling you is don’t buy this new so-called conventional wisdom. This is a very winnable race for Eastman. The Republicans want you to believe that Eastman can’t win so you won’t help her campaign. Don’t be fooled and create a self fulfilling prophecy.
I would also like to put in a plug for Jessica McClure in CD-01 and Paul Theobald in CD-03. We all know that the Republicans have held onto these seats for decades but this year, no incumbent is safe. They are great candidates that deserve your help. If lightning should strike, we want McClure and Theobald to be in a position to pick up the pieces on November 6 and go to Washington.
We badly need a check and balance on the Republicans in Washington. We currently have a rubber stamp Congress and an out of control president. The Founding Fathers would be appalled by the Republicans toadies in Congress. Now let’s get out there and elect more Democrats to Congress! Let’s leave it all out on the field on November 6!