History Tells Us That Kamala Harris Will Win
Kamala Harris and the Democrats just completed the most successful political convention in American history. Harris now has the momentum and holds a narrow lead over convicted felon Don Old Trump in the polls. The Vice President has raised a staggering $540 million since she announced her candidacy — which is four times the amount raised by Trump.
We have more than just a polling lead and the momentum, we have history on our side. The modern political history of this country tells me that Harris will win. Let me explain to you why.
The first historical pattern is what I call the two term rule. Whenever a party wins a first term in the White House, the voters usually reward that party with a second term unless things in the country are really bad.
Since 1900, every party seeking a second term in the White House has won with the exceptions of 1980 and 2020. In those two instances, the state of the country was very poor. In 1980, Carter was badly hurt by double digit inflation, a recession and the Iranian hostage crisis. Four years ago, Trump blew a once in a century pandemic and 200,000 Americans perished due to his incompetence.
Good examples of a party winning a second term in recent history are Roosevelt in 1936, Eisenhower in 1956, Johnson in 1964, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012. In most of those years, the country was in a time of peace and prosperity. Those are the conditions that exist in 2024.
The reader might point to Hoover losing in 1932 and Bush 41 losing in 1992. In both of those cases, the party in power was seeking a fourth straight term in the White House. Winning a third consecutive term is pretty rare and winning a four straight term is even more rare.
The other historical pattern is that the more likable candidate usually wins. The man or woman the voter wants to have a beer with usually has the advantage.
This trend dates back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s electoral victories between 1932–44. In subsequent cycles, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson were all more likable than their opponents.
Nixon is most remembered as an odious and devious person but he ran successfully as the “New Nixon” in 1968 and 1972. He was actually well behaved in public during his winning presidential campaigns, and the Democratic Party was heavily divided during those election cycles over Vietnam.
Carter had a winning smile in 1976 and won a narrow victory over the genial Gerald Ford. Reagan came across as your favorite grandfather when he won his landslide victories in 1980 and 1984. Bush 41 crushed Dukakis in 1988 by falsely portraying him as some kind of effete Harvard liberal.
Clinton was the Man from Hope in 1992 and defeated an overly negative Bush 41. He followed up that win with a landslide victory over an old and grumpy Bob Dole in 1996. Bush 43 came across as an amiable dunce and the press regularly said that the voters would rather have a beer with him than his opponents.
Obama was one of the most charismatic candidates in American history and overwhelmed another old and grumpy Republican in John McCain 2008. Four years later, Obama held off a challenge from Romney, who came across as a sneering plutocrat.
Readers may contend that Hillary Clinton was more likable than Trump. This is the hardest election to fit into my theory. Before 2016, Hillary had been demonized by the GOP and the mainstream media for twenty four years. Many voters had been (unfairly) convinced that Hillary was a mean and corrupt harpy. Another way to look at it is that Hillary did win the popular vote by a 48% to 46% margin but had a fluky loss in the electoral college.
Joe Biden is more likable than Trump — it wasn’t even a contest in 2020. The current president is best known for his empathy and he is great in small groups and one on one encounters with voters. Perhaps all of the voters outside of the MAGA bubble would want to have a non-alcoholic beer with Biden. He is a genuinely nice guy.
Kamala Harris is clearly more likable than Trump. The convicted felon and former TV reality star is a mean and nasty person. He has rejected advice from numerous Republicans to lay off the personal attacks and insults, and stick to the issues. In addition, Trump’s mental health is clearly in decline. He will only get worse between now and November 5. This will only enhance Harris’ already good chances to win.
“Fellow Dems one way we have to make Trump look small not big is to remind folks we are winning the election and he is losing.” Simon Rosenberg.
There is an anti-MAGA majority outside of the red states. Trump has never once gotten more votes than his political opponent. Ever. And under his stewardship, the Republican Party has had historic electoral defeats in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023. The Democratic winning streak has continued into 2024.
Be confident going forward. Take nothing for granted. Keep working hard.
It’s America or convicted felon Trump. Choose wisely.