Joe Biden Is The Front Runner -We Are Winning!

Dennis Crawford
5 min readMar 29, 2024
Biden’s poll numbers have improved since his successful State of the Union Address.

President Joe Biden’s successful State of the Union Address on March 7 will forever be seen as a turning point for the campaign. Even though Biden led in many polls before the speech, the mainstream press and some Democrats claimed that Trump was leading. Due to his feisty performance, Biden dispelled the phony talking point that he is too old to run for re-election. The president’s performance shifted the vibes of the entire campaign — Biden is now widely seen as the favorite to win in November.

According to Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, Biden now holds a narrow lead in 9 recent national polls. Moreover, Biden now has the lead in the Economist polling average.

Biden continues to get more good polling news in the states. He now leads in Pennsylvania by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin in the new Susquehanna poll. Trump can’t win without Pennsylvania.

Any Biden poll lead is significant since the Democrats have consistently out performed the polls since the Dobbs decision. The GOP hasn’t had a good election cycle since the Dobbs decision. The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs continues to weigh down the Republicans — they simply have no answer.

The actual voting results in the 2024 primaries further confirms Biden’s frontrunner status. Biden has consistently done better in his primary elections than Trump did. The President consistently got 85% to 96% in the primary elections when he had opponents. That certainly retires the tired talking point from the press and the GOP that Democrats wanted a different nominee.

In sharp contrast, Trump did very poorly in the GOP primaries. When he had opponents, Trump tallied anywhere from 50% to 60% of the Republican vote. This is alarmingly low because Trump is the equivalent of an incumbent president running for re-nomination. Even after Nikki Haley dropped out, she was getting anywhere from 20% to 25% of the Republican vote.

Anywhere from 50% to 60% of the Haley voters said they won’t vote for Trump in November. Another consistent data point in the GOP exit polls was that anywhere from 25% to 35% of Republicans won’t vote for Trump in November. Even Fox “News” said that Trump can’t win with those numbers. There is Trump fatigue in the GOP and a significant minority of Republicans won’t vote for Trump in November.

Another symptom of Trump fatigue is that Mike Pence has declined to endorse his candidacy. In addition, 41 out of 44 Trump cabinet members have declined to endorse him. These are the people who know Trump best. This gives millions of Republicans a permission slip to not vote for Trump in November.

Trump also badly under performed the polls in the primaries. That under performance ranged anywhere from 8 percentage points to 26 percentage points. The polls tend to overrate Trump and the GOP and underrate the Democrats.

The divisions laid bare in the GOP primaries persist. Trump continues to insult Haley and her supporters. The disgraced former president has ostracized her donors and said he doesn’t need Haley’s votes. He has given Haley no incentive to endorse him. Trump is unable to unite the GOP.

As a consequence of Trump’s insults, several big Haley donors are now raising money for Biden. This is a huge development because it takes those donors off the table and puts them in the Biden camp. The Biden campaign has begun outreach efforts to both Haley donors and supporters.

Polls are not the only relevant metric of a campaign. Biden currently has $155 million in cash on hand compared to $42 million for Trump. Outside groups have pledged to raise $1 billion for Biden. No similar pledges have been made to Trump.

Biden’s impressive fundraising has continued. At a star studded fundraiser featuring Presidents Obama and Clinton on March 28, Biden raised more money in one night than Trump raised in all of February.

There is donor fatigue among Trump supporters. Both small donations and large donations are down significantly since 2020. This is mostly likely because a significant portion of Trump’s campaign cash will go to lawyer fees. In addition, any money contributed to the RNC will go to pay Trump’s lawyers. This will starve down ballot GOP campaigns.

Due to this cash shortage, Trump only campaigned one day in the last two weeks of March and currently has no events on his calendar. Trump canceled a rally in Arizona due to lack of funds. The orange hued mogul is now spending most of his time golfing at his estate in Florida.

It is rumored that Trump is being held off the campaign trail by his staff due to his declining mental health. He is exhibiting all of the signs of the onset of dementia. The GOP presumptive nominee rambles on incoherently and says crazy and toxic things that generate several days of bad headlines. Trump is a detriment to his own campaign.

In contrast, Biden campaigned in eight battleground states in late March. Moreover, the Biden campaign is “going full steam ahead on hiring in the battleground states, approaching 100 field offices with more than 130 staffers spread across eight major battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, as well as North Carolina and New Hampshire.” The Daily Beast, March 27, 2024.

“Trump’s political operation has been slow to pivot toward the general election in the weeks after executing a hostile takeover of the Republican Party’s national political machinery. In fact, the former president’s team has rolled back plans under previous leaders to add hundreds of staff and dozens of new minority-outreach centers in key states without offering a clear alternative.”

“Indeed, just six months before the first early votes are cast in the general election between Trump and Biden, Trump’s Republican Party has little general election infrastructure to speak of.” PBS, March 27, 2024.

Trump isn’t running a real campaign. Trump isn’t campaigning and no campaign infrastructure is being set up. The so called Trump campaign is merely a front to raise campaign cash to pay lawyers and to evade prison.

We have every reason to be confident. Trump and his followers haven’t won an election outside of the deep red states since 2016. The former TV reality star is the only president since Hoover to lose control of the White House and the Congress in a single term. Trump’s lone win in 2016 was fluky due to the incompetence of James Comey. The Trump era has been marked by a long Republican losing streak.

Be confident going forward. Take nothing for granted. Keep working hard.

It’s America or Trump. Choose wisely.



Dennis Crawford

I’m an aspiring historian, defender of democracy and a sports fan.