After the Bush recession ended in 2009, the unemployment rate during the Obama-Biden Administration was reduced from 10% to 4.6%. In 2016 alone, the economy added 2.15 million jobs. Moreover, after the Bush recession ended, the economy added 15.6 million jobs between 2009 to 2016. That was the best record of job creation since Bill Clinton’s second term. In addition, 20 million additional Americans were insured during the Obama-Biden Administration.
Unfortunately, Trump squandered the good economy that he inherited from the Obama-Biden Administration. Since Trump has been in office, the unemployment rate has increased from 4.6% to 8.4%, 12 million Americans have lost insurance and the annual deficit has increased from $585 billion to $3.3 trillion.
A recent report from Moody’s and economist Mark Zandi has concluded that a Democratic sweep would be best for getting the economy back on track. (Zandi is no leftist — he was John McCain’s economic adviser in 2008.)
Moody’s found that a Biden presidency and a Democratic Congress would create a net 7.4 million more jobs and a faster economic recovery than if Trump somehow manages to cling to power. According to this report: “In this scenario, the economy is expected to create 18.6 million jobs during Biden’s term as president, and the economy returns to full employment, with unemployment of just over 4%, by the second half of 2022…Real after tax income for the average American household would increase by $4,800.00 by the end of a Biden first term. “
In contrast, “a Republican sweep would add 11 million jobs in a Trump second term, with the economy only returning to full employment in the first half of 2024. With a weaker job market, the average American household’s real after-tax income wouldn’t budge much,” Moody’s said.
Kevin Drum of Mother Jones did a nice job of explaining why a Democratic victory would be better for the economy: “If Democrats win, they’ll spend money to stimulate the economy out of its COVID-19 funk and this will help everybody. The spending will largely be financed by taxing the rich, which has only a small negative effect on the economy. But if Republicans win, they’ll keep the purse strings closed and instead pursue yet more tax cuts for the rich and trade wars with China.”
Undoubtedly, Trump and his followers will scoff at this report and contend that it means nothing. Interestingly enough, Moody’s issued a prescient economic forecast during the 2016 election. According to Moody’s 2016 projections, Trump’s policies “would cause the economy to suffer a lengthy recession and the economy would be smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office.”
These 2016 and 2020 economic forecasts from Moody’s are entirely consistent with modern economic history. That history has demonstrated that the economy performs better under Democratic presidents. According to Forbes on November 7, 2016: “ It is simply a fact that since World War II, Democratic presidents have seen 24.4 million more jobs created on their watch — an average of 78.6% more jobs created per year of Democratic administrations — than have Republican presidents. Ditto real GDP growth, 44% higher under Democratic presidents. On the flip side, unemployment has been 18% higher under GOP presidents.”
Eight of the last nine recessions have occurred under a Republican president. The lone exception was the recession of 1980 that occurred during the last year of Jimmy Carter’s presidency.
Ronald Reagan did a great job in 1980 articulating the key issue in the 2020 election: “Ask yourself, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was?”
The issue this year is stark: Are we going to allow the same people that wrecked our economy and blew up the deficit to maintain power? It is no coincidence that this is the second consecutive Republican administration to lead the United States into disaster. I’m confident that once the voters get the facts, the Democratic Party will have a good cycle this year. Let’s get it done!