The October Surprise Is Trump Being Trump — Voters Are Fed Up

Dennis Crawford
3 min readNov 2, 2024

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I’m reading the tea leaves and things look good for the Blue Team. If we do the work, we will win. There is no doubt in my mind about it.

“It’s helpful, from experience, to be closing a Presidential campaign with late deciding voters breaking by double digits to you and the remaining undecideds looking more friendly to you than your opponent. Close race, turnout and 4 days of hard work will be key. But good mo.” David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager and Harris adviser.

Senior Harris campaign officials say the campaign’s internal data show them winning by double digits among battleground state voters who made up their mind in the last week. Focus groups, officials say, show damage to Trump from Madison Square Garden rally and Puerto Rico comments.

The Harris campaign clearly views Madison Square Garden rally as a turning point among late-breaking undecided voters, in ways that’s giving them confidence in the final days. “It really broke through,” a senior campaign official said. “It’s helped gel their feeling about this race.”

Politico: “Trump lagging in early vote with seniors in Pennsylvania, a red flag for GOP.”

NEW: The Trump campaign has paused its premature celebration and fallen into sweat mode, as early-voting numbers indicate more women are turning up than men in must-win PA & operatives are bringing out the briefcases for lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here.” Tara Palmieri

“In PA, women are outvoting men by 13 points. (Usually it’s 10%). Among seniors, PA has equal number of republicans and democrats. But 58% of senior vote cast so far is democrats, only 35% GOP. Dem enthusiasm is way ahead, as is voting enthusiasm of women. Harris will win PA.” David Schuster, formerly of MSNBC

“Many people understandably are looking at the polls through the prism of 2016 and 2020, but we are now living in a post-Dobbs world and that is a very different political reality.” Geoff Garin, Democratic pollster.

Nate Cohn of the NY Times wrote the following: “pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.” He wrote that pollsters are terrified of being wrong again, so they’re flat-out ignoring “very blue” results.

New Gallup data that shows Democratic enthusiasm at a (slightly) higher level than it was for Barack Obama’s big 2008 victory. Gallup polling shows Dems with a 10-point enthusiasm advantage over Republicans. The 77% of Democrats who say they’re excited outnumber the 75% who said they were excited in 2020. In 2016, that number was 50%.

New Marist polls:

PENNSYLVANIA Harris 50 Trump 48

MICHIGAN Harris 51 Trump 48

WISCONSIN Harris 50 Trump 48

All three have Harris beating Trump among independents and doing well for a Dem among noncollege whites. Good signs all around.

“Just went to 538 and 4 most recent polls are red wave pollsters. Their working of the polling averages continues, sending a signal to all of us, everyday, they don’t think Trump is winning the election.” Simon Rosenberg

In final House rating today, the Cook Political Report shifts Nebraska CD2 (Tony Vargas-Don Bacon) from Toss Up to lean Democratic.

“Truth Social’s stock price, which more than quadrupled between late September and late October as traders grew more optimistic that Trump would win, has fallen by 46% in the last three days. Suggests that traders don’t think momentum is with Trump.” James Surowiecki

“Fellow Dems one way we have to make Trump look small not big is to remind folks we are winning the election and he is losing.” Simon Rosenberg.

“The October Surprise is Trump being Trump. It turns out people have had enough.” Anthony Scaramucci

Be confident going forward. Take nothing for granted. Keep working hard.

It’s America or Dementia Don Old Trump. Choose wisely.

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Dennis Crawford
Dennis Crawford

Written by Dennis Crawford

I’m an author, historian, freedom fighter and a sports fan. https://www.denniscrawford.org/

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