The Republicans Know That Trump Is Losing
The political world was rocked by a flawed New York Times/Siena poll on November 5 that allegedly showed that Trump was leading in the battleground states. The poll was garbage since it grossly inflated Trump’s support with Hispanics, African-Americans and young people. Despite its obvious flaws, this poll dominated the media narrative for several weeks even though other polls showed Biden in the lead or tied with Trump.
After the New York Times ran that poll, they found several Democrats who expressed concerns off the record that Biden was losing. The mainstream press can always find a few Democratic bedwetters who will deliver Republican talking points. After that, the press highlights the remarks of the fearful Democrats and ignores the more confident ones. Rinse. Repeat. That’s how political reporting works in America.
Here is a reminder of how Democrats always fret, from the New York Times on September 10, 2011:
“Democrats Fret Aloud Over Obama’s Chances
And in a campaign cycle in which Democrats had entertained hopes of reversing losses from last year’s midterm elections, some in the party fear that Mr. Obama’s troubles could reverberate down the ballot into Congressional, state and local races.
“In my district, the enthusiasm for him has mostly evaporated,” said Representative Peter A. DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon. “There is tremendous discontent with his direction.”
The anonymous Democrats quoted in this piece feared that Mitt Romney and even Rick Perry, could beat Obama. That didn’t age well.
Republicans rarely express any doubts about their front runner who is currently facing 91 felony counts and numerous civil lawsuits that could bankrupt him. In addition, Trump has dragged the GOP down to defeat in every election cycle beginning in 2018. The GOP’s “Orange Jesus” was the first president since Hoover to lose control of the White House and the Congress in one term.
The GOP followed that up with losses in 2022 and 2023. Trump endorsed candidates lost across the board in the battleground states. Even though we had a Blue Wave on November 7, 2023, the press ceased mentioning it after election day and has continued to cherry pick the polls that make Trump look strong.
Evidence is beginning to emerge that the Republicans themselves don’t believe the polls that put Trump in the lead. Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Ronna McDaniel is under fire following another disastrous election cycle of losses in 2023. Several prominent Republicans have publicly blamed McDaniel for the party’s losses in 2022 and 2023. Former Arkansas Governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said the RNC lacked a “cohesive message,” while presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy launched a petition drive to remove McDaniel.
“We’ve become a party of losers at the end of the day,” Ramaswamy said at the third Republican presidential debate. “We have to have accountability in our party. For that matter, Ronna, if you want to come on stage tonight and look the GOP voters in the eye and tell them you resign, I will turn over, yield my time to you.”
“What concerns donor and activists is that the RNC is not focused as much as it should be on turning out voters, chasing ballots in the general election,” said one GOP strategist.
The GOP’s long losing streak and Trump’s legal jeopardy have caused fundraising for the RNC to dry up. The RNC heads into the crucial 2024 election cycle with just $7.6 million in cash on hand. It is 10% of what it had in late 2019. “There’s significant anxiety,” said Oscar Brock, a committee member from Tennessee. Henry Barbour, a longtime member from Mississippi, said the reasons for the poor fundraising are obvious: “2020, and then 2022” — and at the top of the list: “Trump.”
Republican insiders like Brock doubt the big money of 2020 can be raised because many GOP donors are disenchanted with a third Trump nomination, especially since there is a strong possibility that Trump will be a convicted felon next year. Brock said many donors are also worried about the GOP’s extreme anti-choice views, and how it might continue to motivate swing voters to vote Blue.
Republican anxiety about Trump is probably also fueled by the fact that a majority of the independent polls taken in recent weeks have Biden tied or ahead. The much hyped New York Times which had Biden trailing Trump several weeks ago, now has Biden leading 47%-45% with likely voters. The Democrats have gained 3 points in 538’s Congressional Generic tracker, and Navigator’s recent House battleground tracker polling found Republican erosion, and the Democrats now with a decided lead.
Here are the 16 recent polls showing Biden ahead or tied (via 538):
- 47–45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
- 49–48 Monmouth
- 49–48 NPR/Marist
- 47–46 Quinnipiac
- 42–41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
- 44–42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
- 39–37 YouGov
- 40–36 and 37–35 Leger
- Reuters had Biden +4 in the battleground Presidential states
- 45–45 Clarity
- 44–44 Yahoo/YouGov
- 41–41 Cygnal
- 43–43 Economist/YouGov 12/6 and 12/20
- 43–43 Morning Consult 12/2
In a new poll released by Echelon Insights on December 23, Biden has retaken the lead from Trump by a 48%-47% margin. The last time Biden led in their poll was in July. The poll also shows Biden leading in the swing states by a landslide lead of 52%-44%.
“By now, we all know the media is going to hype any poll that is favorable for Trump and bury ones that are favorable for President Biden. It is gonna be up to US to combat this narrative and start to turn the tide in public opinion.” Chris D. Jackson.
It can no longer be said that Trump is front runner in the 2024 election. (I doubt he was ever the front runner in the first place.) Instead, it can be accurately said that Biden is the favorite to win the 2024 election. Thus far, the mainstream press has ignored Republican doubts about Trump and the Biden comeback in the polls.
Will the media ever cover these results show Biden is now ahead as much as they did the flawed polling that showed Trump leading? Poll after poll show Biden winning. Why does the media continue to ignore this?
Currently, the most important electoral information aren’t the polls — it’s the Democrats’ ongoing overperformance in elections of all kinds across the country since the Supreme Court threw out Roe. The GOP hasn’t had a good election night since the Dobbs decision. The 2022 and 2023 elections instructed us that focusing our understanding of politics largely on polls is simply unreliable. There was no red wave in 2022 and we had a blue wave in 2023.
The Republican Party is the Nebraska Huskers of politics. They were great in the past but not anymore. Before every Husker football season, there is great hype. The press and the fans all predict a great season. Then they play the games. The Huskers inevitably fall apart and have a poor season.
Similarly, the press and the GOP predict a red wave. Then the campaign begins. The GOP nominates bad candidates, takes extreme stands on the issues and has poor messaging. After that, the GOP has a poor performance on election day and loses the election. Rinse. Repeat.
The economy has finally turned the corner and is improving across the board. Unemployment and inflation have declined significantly since Biden took office. Consumer spending is strong and travel is at an all time high. We have many reasons to be optimistic about the economy in 2024.
If the economy collapses during a Trump presidency, you will be prosecuted and arrested if you dissent. Donald Trump has promised to deploy the military to arrest protesters under the Insurrection Act. There are no checks on the president’s power under this law. Trump has also promised to prosecute political opponents and journalists.
There wouldn’t be any real checks and balances in a second Trump presidency. The Republicans in Congress would just let Trump do what he wants to do. The current SCOTUS has a 6–3 GOP majority. Would they save the Constitution from Trump? Do you want to take that chance?
It’s America or Trump in 2024. Choose wisely.