The State of the Race — We’re Winning
“This presidential race has basically not changed for six weeks. Harris has had a roughly 3 point national lead since six weeks ago. And the key swing states have been basically the same as well. Harris leads in WI, MI, PA, and the race is tied in NV, AZ, GA, and NC.
This is close race, and Harris has advantage. In 2012, at this same time, NBC had race tied, CBS had it +2 Obama, ABC had it +3 Obama. Obama won by 3.9%. This time NBC has race tied, CBS has Harris +3, ABC has Harris +2. Almost exactly the same as 2012. Run through the finish line.” Matthew Dowd, adviser to Bush 43.
Trump’s support in the popular vote is topped out at 46% to 47%. He will be hard pressed to win 270 electoral votes with 46% or 47%. Trump only won the electoral college in 2016 due to more support than usual for third party candidates, James Comey, the Russians and the NY Times. His win was a fluke.
Harris is in the high 40s and around 50% in most national polls. The undecided voters don’t like Trump. When they start paying attention, they will either vote for Harris or stay home. Harris has more room to grow her support.
Beware of the battleground state polls. Half of the battleground state polls are GOP, red wave polls aimed at shifting the narrative. The GOP wants to convince you that Trump is winning. Don’t believe it!
“Cannot stress enough that Rs would not be dropping dozens of polls into the battlegrounds to move the polling averages if they thought they were winning. Harris leads by 4 in PA in new NYT poll.” Simon Rosenberg
Democrats have out performed the polls since the Dobbs decision. There was no red wave in 2022 and there was a blue wave in 2023. Trump under performed the primary polls by 8 to 26 points. Haley continued to get up to 20% in the primaries long after she dropped out.
Polls aren’t the only data point to consider when evaluating the state of the race. Harris is a better candidate and has a much better voter turnout machine. In a close race, a better field operation makes the difference; and Harris has the better field operation. The Democrats have substantially outraised Dementia Don Old Trump and his MAGA Republican allies.
At a recent private fundraising dinner with the GOP’s elite billionaire donors, Trump yelled at them for not raising enough money for his campaign. “Candidates who “lash out” at their large backers three weeks before an election are not candidates who privately feel confident that they are cruising toward victory.” Michael Beschloss
Another factor to consider is recent electoral history. There is an anti-MAGA majority outside of the red states. Trump has never once gotten more votes than his political opponent. And under his stewardship, the Republican Party has had historic electoral defeats in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023. The Democratic winning streak has continued into 2024. The Republicans haven’t had a good election night since 2016.
“Fellow Dems one way we have to make Trump look small not big is to remind folks we are winning the election and he is losing.” Simon Rosenberg.
Kamala Harris and the Democrats will win this election if we do the work. Start channeling your anxiety into action by volunteering to help elect Kamala Harris and other Democrats up and down the ballot.
Be confident going forward. Take nothing for granted. Keep working hard.
It’s America or convicted felon Don Old Trump. Choose wisely.