The Tide Is Turning! We’re Winning!
April 1, 2025 will forever be remembered as a turning point in the battle against MAGA and Trump. The Democrats had a very good election night which bodes well for 2026 and Cory Booker fired up Democrats with a 25 hour Senate floor speech. There is no reason for Democrats to be demoralized or pessimistic about our electoral future. Forward.
The excellent Political Wire site did a good job in analyzing our big win in Wisconsin:
“Susan Crawford’s decisive 10-point win in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race marks a stunning 11-point shift in Democrats’ favor compared to Kamala Harris’s narrow loss in the state just last cycle. It’s the clearest sign yet that the political winds may be shifting in Democrats’ favor.
That kind of swing isn’t a one-off either. It lines up almost exactly with the national average Democrats are seeing in special elections this year — which is also 11 percentage points.
Crucially, turnout in Wisconsin was sky-high — reaching roughly 75% of presidential-year levels. That undercuts the idea that Democratic gains are merely a function of low-turnout anomalies. Some voters in Wisconsin didn’t just show up — they changed their minds and voted for the other party.
And then there’s Elon Musk. The billionaire inserted himself squarely into the race, casting it as a referendum on the “future of civilization.” Instead, voters saw it as a referendum on him — and it backfired badly.
While Republicans may covet Musk’s money and online megaphone, it’s increasingly clear he’s a liability in actual elections. Crawford’s internal polling showed her ahead, but nowhere near the 10-point blowout that materialized after Musk’s loud entry into the race.”
The bottom line here is that Musk’s threats to spend millions to oust dissenting Republicans in primaries and Democrats in the general election are not nearly as ominous as previously thought. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.
The Republicans and many of the pundits in the “liberal” mainstream media wrote the Democrats’ political obituary (again) as recently as March 16 when a NBC poll indicated that the Democrats had a 27% approval rating rating. Largely overlooked was the Republicans’ 36% approval rating.
That low approval rating for the Democrats reveals a lot of dissatisfaction among Democrats with their party leaders. Nevertheless, that approval rating misses the fact that Democrats are highly motivated and will turn out for Democratic candidates in crucial elections. We may not be perfect but the GOP is nuts.
CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein did a pretty good job in explaining why the Democrats’ low approval rating doesn’t mean much. Instead, it’s the president’s approval rating that matters in off year elections. An out party with a low approval rating will win off year elections when the president is unpopular.
From Brownstein:
“Democrats are sounding the alarm over a cluster of recent polls showing that the party’s public image is more bruised and battered than at any point in decades.
Looking across recent midterm elections, there’s no evidence that such broad measures of party favorability have influenced the outcome in any consistent way. For instance, the Democrats’ image in most polls was at least as favorable as (and sometimes more favorable than) the Republicans’ in both 2010 and 2014 — and the GOP achieved historic landslides in those midterm elections anyway.
The best evidence shows that attitudes toward the incumbent president are now exerting far more influence on midterm election results than views about the party out of the White House. What’s more, the historical record suggests the best way for the opposition party to raise its own standing is to weaken the president’s position.
That means the Democrats’ best chance to recover before 2026 likely depends less on their efforts to refurbish their own image than on their ability to crystallize public discontent with the actions by President Donald Trump and the Republicans who control both chambers of Congress.
“The Democratic party having the lowest negative rating in 30 years has consequence, but midterm elections are about the status of the economy, direction of the country, and presidential approval,” said longtime Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Trump’s job approval before the election will tell us a lot more about the outcome of 2026 than the rating of the Democratic party.””
In most recent mid-term election cycles, the incumbent presidents’ approval ratings were mired in the low to mid-40s. That would explain the big wins for the out party in the 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 election cycles. Buyer’s remorse among a critical mass of voters set in shortly after the presidential election cycle.
Already, significant buyer’s remorse has set in regarding the 2024 election of Trump and the MAGA Republican Congress. Trump’s approval ratings are already in the low 40s and they will continue to fall. We have reached a turning point in voter sentiment.
E.J. Dionne said it well with a recent post on social media:
“Wisconsin + Florida + Booker = Turning Point
Susan Crawford’s Wisconsin win is a huge rebuke to Elon Musk. He tried to buy Republican turnout. He motivated Democratic turnout instead.
Republicans, not Democrats, are in denial. Slavish loyalty to Trump will have big 2026 costs.”
Already, the Republicans are fearing a mid-term blowout. After Tuesday night’s elections, Republicans are starting to worry that Trump’s erratic and inflationary policies will lead to a blue wave. “I think the results are fairly indicative of what we normally see in special elections when it comes to the party of a newly elected president. I expected to see an uptick in Dem turnout and some inattention by the GOP after a November victory.” said Representative Don Bacon (R-Neb.).
The meltdown of the economy and the stock market due to Trump’s radical tariffs will accentuate this trend of voter opposition to Trump’s enablers in the Congress. “I think if this keeps up the Senate might be in play. And frankly I think we should respect red state voters enough to give them an alternative to this shit show.” Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI.).
If you are a Democrat with any ambition of running for office, you should immediately start planning your 2026 campaign. If this disaster continues, it will (unfortunately) be the best political environment for you to run in for the rest of your life. The environment will most likely resemble 1932 when Roosevelt and the Democratic Party won a landslide victory across the board.
I currently have nothing to offer you but toil, tears and sweat. We have hard days ahead of us. If we do the work, we will win and take back our country. Let’s go!
Sources consulted:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/02/republicans-midterm-backlash-fears-030290
https://politicalwire.com/2025/04/03/the-silver-lining-in-trumps-tariffs/