Trump Should Be On The Ballot In 2024 So We Can Beat Him
Some Democrats have filed suit in Colorado and Minnesota to keep Trump off the 2024 ballot in those states. The legal challenges are based upon the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states that no one can hold office if, having previously done so and taken an oath to uphold the Constitution, they “have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”
The purpose of this clause was to prevent former Confederates from holding federal office. The insurrection clause gave the Congress the authority to lift the ban, which it did in 1872. Ultimately, former Confederates were elected to the Congress.
One could certainly make a strong argument that Trump violated the 14th Amendment when his thugs attacked the Capitol and tried to steal the 2020 election on January 6, 2021. On that dark day, Trump’s traitors killed five people and wounded 170 others. Most of the victims were police officers.
There is talk that some lawsuits will soon be filed in other states. A reliable source speaking on background told me that some activists are shopping a 14th Amendment case in Nebraska but they aren’t finding any lawyers who want to take on the case. The reality is that the Nebraska judiciary largely consists of Republican appointees and a 14th Amendment case would most likely be rejected.
If Trump is kicked off the ballot in Minnesota or Colorado, the case(s) will be appealed to the U.S. Supreme. There is no doubt in my mind that the Republican dominated Supreme Court will allow Trump to be on the ballot in all fifty states. They have little regard for the rule of law or precedent. Their rulings largely reflect their partisan preferences and the wishes of the billionaires who fund their lavish lifestyles.
It may actually be a good thing that Trump is on the ballot in 2024. We need to defeat him in an election to end his threat to democracy and freedom. This is the best (and only way) to end the danger posed by Trump and the MAGA Republicans. I’m confident that Trump will be defeated in 2024 if we work hard. Hear me out on this one.
Many prominent Republicans share my belief that Trump can’t defeat Biden in a general election. Kevin McCarthy, the Club For Growth and the Koch family all believe that Trump can’t win. These people have access to the most sophisticated polling data in the country. The polls they’re looking at are likely much better than the click-bait polls that we routinely see from the “liberal” mainstream media. (These are the same polling outfits that predicted a red wave in 2022.)
Another encouraging data point that has been largely overlooked by the mainstream press is the strong Democratic over performance in special elections in 2023. Nate Silver and his 538 site found that the Democrats over performed the partisan lean in districts in 2023 by an average of 10 points in nearly 40 special elections across the country. The Daily Kos site currently has the Democrats up 7.6 points over our performance in 2020 in 27 elections this year.
We can expect a similar over performance next year if Trump is on the ballot. Recent focus groups of Democratic voters who supported Biden in 2020 indicate strong support for the president in 2024 if Trump is the GOP nominee. One group of Georgia voters unanimously said they would vote for Biden again. One person even said they would vote for Biden if he was dead.
Another factor that has been overlooked by the GOP and the mainstream press is Trump’s ongoing legal jeopardy. Former federal prosecutor and U.S. Attorney Chris Christie predicted that Trump will be convicted of a felony next year. Christie: “He’s going to be convicted. … It’s over.”
The polls we see from the mainstream press don’t take into account a Trump felony conviction. My educated guess is that the polls being funded by the GOP billionaire donor class ask voters about the impact of a Trump felony conviction.
The rare public polling on the matter indicates that a Trump felony conviction would be devastating for his political prospects. The Ipsos/Reuters survey of August 3, 2023, found that a whopping 45% percent of Republicans would not vote for Trump if he were convicted. Another 20% indicated that they were unsure of how they would vote in this eventuality. Trump can’t win if 45% or more Republicans voters sit this one out.
I’m confident that Biden can win the 2024 election even if Trump isn’t the nominee. There has been some speculation from the elite pundits that the likes of Nikki Haley could win the general election since she is younger than Trump and lacks his heavy baggage.
What the press doesn’t realize is that if Trump loses the nomination fight, he won’t endorse the nominee. Instead, Trump will sabotage the nominee by falsely claiming voter fraud. Trump put the country through hell after he lost in November 2020 and he would do the same to the GOP in 2024 if he lost. The man is the biggest sore loser in history.
What most people have forgotten is that Trump lost the Iowa Caucus on February 1, 2016, to Ted Cruz by a 28% to 24% margin. Rubio was a close third at 23%. It was a poor performance by Trump. Nonetheless, Trump made false allegations of voter fraud after he lost in Iowa.
Trump posted the following on Twitter on February 3, 2016:
“Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!” Several social media users made screen shots of a deleted tweet from Trump’s account, in which he alleged that Cruz had “illegally” stolen the vote. “Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified,” Trump wrote.
Trump followed up those social media posts with a demand that Iowa Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann overturn the results of the 2016 caucuses and schedule a do over. Ultimately, Trump dropped his efforts in Iowa since he went on to win numerous other subsequent primaries. However, Trump’s temper tantrum shows what he will do if he loses the GOP nomination. He won’t go quietly.
Trump’s voters may not vote if he lost the 2024 GOP nomination. For example, the Nebraska Republican Party has posted that if Trump is taken off the ballot, Trump voters should stay home. It is easy to imagine that Trump’s hard core supporters would stay home in November 2024 if he isn’t the GOP nominee.
Trump would most likely run as a third party candidate if he lost the GOP nomination. His outsized ego would require it and he needs the campaign donations to fund his legal defense. Anywhere from 33% to 50% of Trump’s campaign funds are going to pay his lawyers. This would split the Republican vote and hand the election to the Democrats.
It’s win-win for the country and the Democrats if Trump is on the ballot in 2024. The reality is that nobody is going to save us from Trump and the MAGA Republicans. We can’t count on the courts, special prosecutors or the press. It’s up to us. If we put in the work, there will be a blue wave in 2024. Organize! Vote! We can do this!