Trump Voters Will Soon Have Buyer’s Remorse
I was listening to National Public Radio recently and several of their commentators breathlessly claimed that Don Old Trump had won a “mandate.” Similarly, The Hill website made several references to Trump’s alleged “decisive” victory. That is simply absurd and we need to push back hard against that false narrative .
The reality is that Trump is headed to what looks like a 1.5% point victory in the popular vote. In contrast, Biden won the popular vote by a 51% to 47% margin in 2020. Trump’s margin of victory is smaller than both of Barack Obama’s wins, Bush’s narrow win in 2004 and Bill Clinton’s big wins in 1992 and 1996. It is even smaller than Hillary Clinton’s 48% to 46% margin in 2016.
In an environment that has been very favorable to non-incumbent parties all over the world in 2024, Trump is probably going to finish with with a smaller percentage margin in the popular vote than Hillary Clinton did. The theory that Trump’s win is some kind of total repudiation of the Democratic Party is groundless.
During the campaign, American voters indicated that the economy was their number one issue, driven largely by concerns about higher inflation in the wake of the pandemic. Somehow, a bare majority trusted Trump more than Harris to handle it. What’s more, Trump’s voters convinced themselves that prices would return to 2019 levels. That hasn’t happened, and economists don’t expect it ever will. Deflation is a bad thing and we haven’t experienced it since the Great Depression.
After the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation increased significantly all over the world. It was the first round of high inflation since the 1970s and early 1980s. Most people grew up in an era of low inflation and the price spikes were unexpected and uncomfortable for most people. The reality is that elected officials had very little to do with the higher prices.
As a result of that inflation, voters have thrown out incumbents, on both the right and the left all over the world in recent years. Inflation has been deadly to incumbent parties everywhere. As it turned out, the U.S. was not an exception.
For the first time ever, incumbent parties have lost every election so far in 2024, with exception of Mexico and India. Mexico was an exception because they had experienced high inflation before the pandemic — they were used to it. Modi’s Janata Party in India was expected to win a huge landslide and super majority — in part — due to Modi’s effort to rig the elections. Instead, while Modi’s party maintained power, they actually lost numerous seats in the Indian parliament.
Voters all over the globe wanted to throw the rascals out, and they did in virtually every election. The Democratic Party was just another victim of this massive wave of voter discontent.
For the first time since 1945, every incumbent party facing re-election lost vote share. This is an absolutely crucial context to any election postmortem. It probably didn’t make any difference what Harris did. Having a contested Democratic primary, choosing a different running mate, going on the Joe Rogan show, or talking more about the economy probably wouldn’t have changed anything.
The massive disruption of the U.S. caused by inequality, globalization and trickle down economics has caused 11 change elections out of the last 13 in our country. The reason is that neither political party has the confidence of the voters. American voters are in a sour mood and that is now Trump’s problem.
It is inevitable that buyer’s remorse will soon set in with the soft Trump supporters in light of his extreme agenda. On election night, Trump proclaimed: “Promises made, promises kept.” Trump’s voters are in for a nasty surprise.
We’re all going to pay a lot more for everything once Trump is president. His tariffs, the mass deportation scheme and his massive deficits will all jack up inflation. That’s what every mainstream economist is telling us. We’re in for a rough 4 years.
Trump’s plan to deport 10–15 million people will cause food and housing prices to soar. Fewer houses will be built and there will be food shortages. Labor — if it can be found — will be more expensive.
Trump promised a 60% tariff on imports from China, a 100% tariff on imports from Mexico, and a 20% tariff on all other imports. Trump talked about tariffs at every campaign stop. This is his highest economic priority along with deficit funded tax cuts for the rich and corporations.
The National Retail Federation has already said that Trump’s proposed tariffs will cost American consumers between $46 billion to $78 billion a year as everything becomes more expensive. A $50 pair of running shoes, would retail for $59 to $64 under the new tariffs.
Daniel Laguna of LevelUp warned that Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports could raise the costs of gaming consoles by 40%, so that a PS5 Pro gaming system would cost up to $1,000.
Already companies are preparing to hike up prices. “ If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” Philip Daniele, CEO of vehicle parts supplier AutoZone, told Wall Street analysts .. “We’ll generally raise prices .. ahead of that.”
Mortgage rates rose after Trump’s victory and are expected to stay higher for longer. I know somebody who took out a 5.75% mortgage in September and mortgage rates have since increased to 7%.
Trump voters believed that they are going to get lower prices. Trump’s inflationary policies will be a nasty surprise to his supporters. This is the ultimate FAFO for MAGA voters.
There will be a backlash. Trump was never popular during his first presidency and his approval ratings were usually in the low 40s. It won’t be any different this time around.
Trump and the GOP will soon see a blue wave coming. Will they crack down on the opposition? Trump has threatened to arrest over 100 prominent Democrats and Never Trump Republicans. The MAGA Republicans have also promised to go after the media and have threatened broadcast licenses. These threats are especially dangerous since the Republican controlled Supreme Court has ruled that Trump is immune from criminal prosecution.
The key issue in 2026 and 2028 is whether or not we will have a free and fair election. We Democrats can’t give up. We must resist Trump and the MAGA Republicans with everything we have. Now let’s get it done!
Sources consulted:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-victory-china-tariffs-taxes-inflation/