Why Democrats Shouldn’t Freak Out About Stupid Polls
The entire political world and media are freaking out about a flawed NY Times/Siena Poll that claims that Biden is trailing Trump in 5 out of 6 battleground states. (Interestingly enough, buried in the story is data that indicates that Trump will lose badly once he is convicted of a felony but that has been ignored. Why?)
I think there is no reason to panic or freak out. The NY Times/Siena poll is deeply flawed, historically incumbents have trailed one year before the election and there are many other encouraging polls for Biden.
The over hyped NY Times/Siena poll claims that Biden leads among Hispanic voters by an 8 point margin. In contrast, Clinton won this important voter group by a 38% point margin in 2016 and Biden carried them by a 21% percentage point margin in 2020. The NY Times poll finding doesn’t make much sense.
Similarly, this same poll inflates Trump’s support with African-American voters. For black voters, the NY Times would lead you to believe that Trump is going to carry 21% of the black vote next year. In contrast, he got a mere 8% in 2020 and only 6% in 2016.
In 2020, Biden won young voters (under 30) by a 24% percentage point margin. Hillary won this group by 30 points in 2016. Now the NY Times wants us to believe that Biden only leads young voters by one percentage point. It should also be noted that a recent CBS poll has Biden up by 26 points with voters under the age of 30.
Historically, incumbent presidents have trailed approximately one year before their re-election. The historical pattern is that the press beats the hell out of them for three years, tells the public that the incumbent president can’t do anything right and that everything is terrible. Once the incumbent presidents’ campaigns were ramped up, the voters got to see the other side of the argument. Those campaigns improved the incumbent presidents’ approval and re-election numbers.
Just about everybody wrote Harry Truman’s political obituary in 1947–48. In 1948, polling was in its relative infancy and the final poll was taken about two weeks before the election. The final Gallup poll gave GOP nominee Tom Dewey a five point lead over Harry Truman. Obviously, no poll was taken that detected Truman’s surge in the last fourteen days of the campaign. Truman defeated Dewey by a comfortable 49% to 44% margin in the popular vote and won the electoral college with 303 electoral votes.
I did some internet searches to seek out polling and punditry before several previous presidential elections. I have simply cited the sources and quoted from the articles. Some of the commentary is pretty hilarious in light of what followed. Please take a little trip down memory lane with me.
Reagan Should Not Seek Second Term, Majority Believes — Washington Post on September 17, 1982.
“Almost six in 10 Americans feel Ronald Reagan should not run for a second term as president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Independent voters, a key to his victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980, now oppose a second Reagan candidacy by 50 to 42 percent, with 8 percent expressing no opinion. Even one-third of the Republicans interviewed said they are opposed to Reagan’s seeking renomination.
In all, 35 percent of those who said they voted for Reagan in 1980 — and 58 percent of all those polled — said he should not seek re-election. Only 37 percent of all those polled said he should run again.
In the trial heat against Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat currently leads by 48 to 39 percent.”
Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in an epic landslide in 1984. Reagan won the popular vote 59% to 41% and carried 49 states.
Dole Edges Clinton In Newsweek Poll on June 11, 1995.
“The Newsweek poll of 755 adults to be published in the magazine’s June 15 edition shows the Kansas Republican ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent.”
Newsweek’s book on the 1996 campaign was titled: “Back From The Dead.”
Clinton defeated Dole 49% to 41% in the popular vote and won the electoral vote 379–159.
Why Obama Needs A Primary Challenge-Reuters on September 22, 2011. This was an opinion piece.
“ In the latest teasing McClatchy-Maris poll, Obama is both facing defeat — Americans say they will vote against him by 49 percent to 36, with 52 percent to 38 predicting he will lose.
Dennis Kucinich said he would decline the chance to stand himself, but said, “I think he should [face a Democratic challenger]. It would make him a better president.”
Democrats feel the president has not been passionate enough about jobs, nor angry enough at those content to let the economy drift for the next 12 months, with all the damage that would do to employment and businesses big and small, rather than do a deal. It is hard to remember now how Obama last time round fired up parts of the Democratic constituency that traditionally don’t even register to vote.”
Pollster: Trend Isn’t Good For Obama. Politico on October 6, 2011.
“A majority of voters — 55 percent — told Quinnipiac University they don’t like how Obama is doing his job. That’s an all-time low for Obama, according to pollsters. Just 41 percent approve of the job the president is doing.
A huge swath of Americans — 77 percent — told pollsters they think the economy is currently in a recession. Just 11 percent say they think the economy is improving, compared with 44 percent who said they believe it is getting worse.
Most Americans, or 64 percent, say Obama is doing a bad job of handling the economy, while just 32 percent told pollsters they approve of the president’s actions concerning the economy.
Brown said in the press release that Obama “is stuck at a politically unhealthy level for someone who wants to be re-elected.”
“Especially troubling for the president is that voters say 49–39 percent that Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney would do a better job on the economy,” Brown said.”
Is Obama Toast? Nate Silver on November 3, 2011.
“Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog.
When we look at the last eight elected presidents, only Carter faced a situation worse than Obama’s: approval ratings in the low 30s rather than low 40s.
Second, most of us are gravely concerned about the economy. We’re not certain what should be done about it, but we’re frustrated.
Third, enough of us are prepared to vote against Obama that he could easily lose.”
New York Magazine on November 21, 2011.
“But according to an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by by Douglas Schoen and Patrick Caddell, two pollsters who formerly worked for Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, respectively, Obama should do the right thing and “step aside for the one candidate who would become, by acclamation, the nominee of the Democratic Party: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.”
A good friend of mine attended the meeting of the Democratic National Committee in the summer of 2011. Everybody but the Obama campaign was nervous about the 2012 election. The Obama people were confident and told the Democrats to just wait and see what they had on Romney.
Obama beat Romney 51% to 47% in the popular vote and 332 to 206 in the electoral vote.
We have every reason to be confident about 2024. Don’t give in to the doom and gloom from the mainstream press and the Republicans. The press has a nasty habit of emphasizing bad polls for Biden and ignoring good polls for us.
The press ignored the Susquehanna PR poll which indicated that Biden leads Trump 47% to 40%. RFK, Jr. got 6%. This is a reputable poll — Obama campaign manager Jim Messina posted about this poll over the weekend. In day two of the NY Times poll panic, a large sample national poll from Noble Predictive Insights found that Biden is leading Trump by 4 points, 48%–44%. On the same day, the Cygnal poll indicated that Biden is leading Trump 47% to 45%.
On November 8, I went to the 538 website and discovered that there were 8 national polls released just last week showing Biden tied or ahead, not trailing. You can’t trust the media to fairly report all of the polls because a Biden lead doesn’t fit their narrative.
The Democratic winning streak in off year and special elections also rebuts the narrative of doom from the press. The Democrats over performed (again) in the November 2023 elections. Andy Beshear was re-elected governor in ruby red Kentucky. The Kentucky governor’s race has predicted the winner of the next presidential election in the last five presidential cycles.
The pro-choice amendment won a landslide victory in reddish Ohio. And in Virginia, the Democrats gained control of the Virginia legislature. “Glenn Youngkin put all of his political capital into this election. He was constantly at rallies and on television and forced his way into the story. The determining factor was how Youngkin would ban abortion if he had full control of state government. What a disaster for Youngkin.” Josh Schwerin.
Congratulations everyone! We head into 2024 with the wind at our back!
The Democrats have created 14 million new jobs and reduced unemployment to one of its lowest levels in over fifty years. We have had a record 21 straight months of unemployment below 4%, the longest stretch since 1970. Wages are finally going up and inflation is finally coming down. We’re turning the corner.
In contrast, all the Republicans have to offer is chaos and dysfunction. The House GOP is now run by Trump and he has instructed them to shutdown the government unless the GOP gets everything they want. The Republicans are hoping that a prolonged government shutdown will cause a recession and that the voters will blame Joe Biden.
The Trump agenda in a second term would be un-American and mainly about revenge. Trump’s henchmen are drafting a scheme to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military to put down demonstrations. Trump is also planning massive door to door deportations, prosecuting political opponents and even local prosecutors who don’t tow the Trump line. It is scary.
It’s America or the MAGA Republicans in 2024. Choose wisely.